Before a single missile is fired, before a mine is laid, before a naval vessel changes course, the insurance market registers the threat. War risk premiums on tankers transiting the Persian Gulf are among the most sensitive geopolitical indicators available. They move faster than official statements, faster than military repositioning, and faster than most news coverage. The underwriters at Lloyd’s of London are not strategists, but their pricing reflects a continuous aggregation of threat intelligence that rivals most government assessments.