The week of September 28 to October 5 was the worst for tankers in the Strait of Hormuz since the war began on February 28. Tracking sources counted at least 12 attacks on oil, LPG and LNG carriers in those seven days. The IMO, which is slower to verify, had confirmed nine. The previous worst week, in mid-July, had eight.

Where the ships were hit matters more than how many. Almost every strike in that stretch landed in the southern channel, a few miles off Oman’s coast. That is the lane shipowners moved to in June, when Muscat’s corridor offered a way past Iran’s tolled northern route. It was supposed to be the workaround. Iran is now treating it as a firing range.

When the United Arab Emirates announced its departure from OPEC, most commentary focused on the diplomatic rupture — the end of a decades-long alliance, the tension with Riyadh, the signal it sent about the cohesion of the Gulf producer bloc. But the more consequential story is infrastructural. The UAE already has a pipeline that changes everything.

The Habshan-Fujairah Pipeline: Built for Exactly This Moment

The Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline — running 400 kilometers from the onshore Habshan oil fields to the deepwater export terminal at Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman — was completed in 2012 and was always understood as a strategic hedge against Hormuz closure. It has a nameplate capacity of approximately 1.5 million barrels per day, with expansion potential that Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) has publicly targeted at 1.8 to 2 million barrels per day.

The Strait of Hormuz is irreplaceable for Iran. It is increasingly optional for everyone else. Two decades of Gulf state infrastructure investment have built a parallel export system that bypasses the corridor entirely, and the trend is accelerating. The strategic implication is that Iran’s chokepoint leverage is depreciating in real time.

Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, the Petroline, runs from Abqaiq to Yanbu on the Red Sea. Capacity has been expanded incrementally and now sits near five million barrels per day. In a Hormuz disruption scenario, the Saudis can route the bulk of their crude to a Red Sea terminal that exits via Bab el-Mandeb, a strait the Houthis can harass but the kingdom can defend more easily than a Gulf corridor ringed by Iranian territory. Yanbu is not a perfect substitute. It is a serviceable one.

Three small islands sit near the entrance of the Strait of Hormuz. Abu Musa belongs to the emirate of Sharjah. Greater Tunb and Lesser Tunb belonged to Ras al-Khaimah. In November 1971, two days before the British protectorate over the Trucial States expired and three days before the United Arab Emirates came into formal existence as an independent nation, Iranian forces occupied all three. Greater Tunb was taken by force, killing several Ras al-Khaimah police officers who attempted to resist. Abu Musa was occupied under a memorandum of understanding with Sharjah that Iran has since interpreted in ways that effectively amount to full occupation. The UAE has never accepted any of this. The dispute is over fifty years old and shows no sign of resolution.

Fujairah sits on the Gulf of Oman coast of the United Arab Emirates, on the far side of the Hajar Mountains from Dubai and Abu Dhabi. For most of its history it was the smallest and least developed of the seven emirates, with a fishing economy and a geography that made connection to the Emirati interior difficult. What transformed Fujairah was the recognition, by Abu Dhabi planners and international oil traders simultaneously, that a port on the Gulf of Oman side of the UAE was worth more than a port on the Arabian Gulf side because it lay outside the Strait of Hormuz. Its strategic value is a function of what it avoids.

Every serious analysis of Hormuz closure scenarios eventually arrives at the same question: how much oil can get out without using the strait? The answer, consistently, is not enough — and understanding why requires examining the bypass infrastructure that exists, the infrastructure that has been proposed, and the fundamental mismatch between pipeline capacity and the volumes the strait normally moves.

The numbers establish the problem. On a normal day, somewhere between 17 and 21 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products transit Hormuz. The combined nameplate capacity of all existing bypass pipelines is a fraction of that figure, and nameplate capacity is not operational capacity. The infrastructure must be maintained, staffed, protected, and in some cases reversed from its normal flow direction before it becomes useful in a closure scenario. The gap between what the strait moves and what the alternatives can handle does not close quickly.