The Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran is eighty-five years old. His health has been the subject of sustained speculation for years, with periodic reports of serious illness that the Iranian government neither confirms nor adequately denies. The succession question is not speculative. It is operational. The individuals and factions positioning for post-Khamenei influence are doing so now, and their relative strength when the transition occurs will determine whether the Islamic Republic emerges from succession in a more confrontational or more accommodating posture toward the outside world, and toward Hormuz specifically.