The fragile understanding that was supposed to keep the Strait of Hormuz open collapsed further this week. On Tuesday, the US Treasury revoked the general license that had allowed Iran to sell its oil on international markets, just over two weeks after Washington issued the waiver as the centerpiece concession of last month’s interim memorandum of understanding with Tehran. The reversal followed a wave of attacks on tankers in the strait, including strikes on a Qatari LNG carrier and a Saudi-flagged crude supertanker.

Israel does not import oil through the Strait of Hormuz. Its energy supply arrives primarily through the Ashkelon terminal from the Caspian pipeline system and through domestic production from offshore Mediterranean fields that have grown substantially over the past fifteen years. Israel’s direct exposure to Hormuz transit is limited. Its indirect exposure — through the price effects of any closure, through the regional security consequences of US-Iran conflict, and through the impact of Iranian military capacity on the deterrence calculus that Israel maintains — is substantial and persistent.