Saudi Arabia has restored full pumping capacity on the East-West pipeline — also known as the Petroline — returning throughput to 7 million barrels per day following Iranian drone strikes that knocked out one of its eleven pumping stations in early April. The restoration was confirmed by the kingdom’s Ministry of Energy and represents the completion of a contingency plan decades in the making.

The pipeline was built during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, designed precisely for this scenario: a hostile power threatening the Strait of Hormuz. Running 1,200 kilometers across the Arabian Peninsula from the Abqaiq processing hub in the Eastern Province to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, it moves Saudi crude entirely overland, rendering the strait irrelevant to the kingdom’s export capacity. In 2026, accompanying natural gas liquids pipelines were converted to carry crude oil, raising total capacity from 5 million to 7 million barrels per day.

Fujairah sits on the Gulf of Oman coast of the United Arab Emirates, on the far side of the Hajar Mountains from Dubai and Abu Dhabi. For most of its history it was the smallest and least developed of the seven emirates, with a fishing economy and a geography that made connection to the Emirati interior difficult. What transformed Fujairah was the recognition, by Abu Dhabi planners and international oil traders simultaneously, that a port on the Gulf of Oman side of the UAE was worth more than a port on the Arabian Gulf side because it lay outside the Strait of Hormuz. Its strategic value is a function of what it avoids.

Every serious analysis of Hormuz closure scenarios eventually arrives at the same question: how much oil can get out without using the strait? The answer, consistently, is not enough — and understanding why requires examining the bypass infrastructure that exists, the infrastructure that has been proposed, and the fundamental mismatch between pipeline capacity and the volumes the strait normally moves.

The numbers establish the problem. On a normal day, somewhere between 17 and 21 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products transit Hormuz. The combined nameplate capacity of all existing bypass pipelines is a fraction of that figure, and nameplate capacity is not operational capacity. The infrastructure must be maintained, staffed, protected, and in some cases reversed from its normal flow direction before it becomes useful in a closure scenario. The gap between what the strait moves and what the alternatives can handle does not close quickly.