Iran's Own Arithmetic: What a Closure Would Cost the Country That Controls the Threat

Sun, 26 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0000

The strategic logic of Iran’s Hormuz threat rests on the assumption that the cost of closure to the outside world exceeds the cost of closure to Iran. This assumption is correct in relative terms and misleading in absolute terms. Iran would suffer severely from a Hormuz closure that it initiated. Its oil exports, its import supply chain, and its remaining international financial connections all depend on the strait remaining open. The question is whether the political leadership in Tehran would initiate a closure despite these costs, and under what conditions the answer would be yes. The Iranian domestic economy is the ledger that answers that question.

Hormuz Strategy on Hormuz.net

Iran's Own Arithmetic: What a Closure Would Cost the Country That Controls the Threat